Wednesday, June 25, 2008

3rd Year Coaches Review

By year three in a coaches tenure, fans and administration become pretty confident in their opinion of their head coach. In fact, in recent years some coaches have been fired following their third season.

Bronco Mendenhall, BYU (28-10): BYU hasn't lost a MWC game during the past two seasons. BYU has been tabbed by many as the most likely BCS party crasher for this coming season. He's brought a solid defense to Provo to go along with their historically good offense. He will be a hot commodity on the coaching market, however, rumors are floating that he may not be interested in being a coaching lifer.

Skip Holtz, East Carolina (20-17):
The younger Holtz has quickly turned this football hungry school into a solid program. They will be near the top of C-USA yet again. Another solid year could very possibly land him a BCS coaching gig this off season.

Urban Meyer, Florida (31-8):
Many suspected that the Meyer spread offense wouldn't be able to deal with the SEC speed. Boy was that wrong. After a mildly sluggish first year, he has simply won a national title and produced a Heisman winner. Many will call for the Gators to win both awards again this season. Meyer game to Florida as a budding coaching genius and has done nothing to dispel that belief.

Ron Zook, Illinois (13-23):
Zook struggled through two two-win seasons to start off his Illinois tenure. However, those who followed this program recognized that his second team was a budding power. He followed up that season with Illinois' first Rose Bowl birth since after the '83 season. His '07 team was actually slightly worse than the '06 team in many key statistics. He has led the Big Ten in rushing the last two seasons. His recruiting with Illinois has drawn high praise, however, his on field success has occurred primarily with Ron Turner recruits. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise, this man can coach.

Terry Hoeppner, Indiana (9-14, 2 years):
Tragically, Coach Hoep succumbed to brain cancer during the summer of 2007. He became the second standing Big Ten head coach to die in as many seasons. Like Randy Walker, he previously coached at Miami OH. In his short time in Bloomington he significantly rouse the level of play and lifted up the spirit of the campus. He will be remembered.

Les Miles, LSU (34-6):
He is the second coach on this list with a National Title and the possessor of the best record. His words prior to this season's SEC title game, "I'm looking forward to coaching my damn fine football team," are perhaps the most famous in the history of the coaching carousel. The National Title allowed for him to get out from under the Nick Sabin shadow, which he deserves. If he can continue to surround himself with top flight coordinators he'll go down as one of the all-time greats. Expect him and Meyer to have many epic battles.

Mark Snyder, Marshall (12-23):
The former Ohio State defensive coordinator's tenure as Marshall head coach has been a big disappointment. He took over for a coach with a 0.803 winning percentage. Snyder's seat is getting warm.

Shane Montgomery, Miami OH (15-21):
He took over a program that recently lost one of their all-time best players. His 2-10 season in '06 included many heat break type loses and isn't indicative of the job he's done in Oxford. He won't be as good as Hoeppner, but expect Montgomery to be good enough to hold his job for a number of years and compete for a MAC title every so often - including this coming season.

Ed Orgeron, Mississippi (10-25):
Orgeron became the second coach from this class to be fired after going win less in the SEC in '07. Ole Miss acted incredibly quickly in hiring Nutt, so who knows how long that move was in the works. Its tough to knock Ole Miss for jumping at the opportunity with Nutt. Orgeron definitely struggled on the field, but recruited well enough to probably justify another year. While he is currently an NFL assistant, expect him to catch on in college again as someones top recruiter.

Mike Sanford, UNLV (6-29):
Sanford came to UNLV as a hot commodity after serving as Urban Meyer's offensive coordinator at Utah. His tenure at UNLV, a program that's struggled to gain any traction, has been a disaster. Without a big year this season, UNLV may be back in the coach market.

Hal Mumme, New Mexico State (8-29):
Many expected Mumme to do big things here given his success at Kentucky. His original defensive coordinator was also a former SEC head coach, Woody Widenhofer (now retired). Mumme has produced solid offenses but nothing better than a 4 win season. He may still be able to turn things around.

Charlie Weis, Notre Dame (22-15):
Chas Weis started his ND career with such a bang he was quickly given a 10 year contract. He led the Irish to BCS bowls in each of his first two seasons. His second team was selected by many to win the National Title. However, that team's offense took a sizable step back. He followed that up with an incredibly bad 3-9 season. Notre Dame, a program very familiar with the shark infested coaching search waters, seems to still be behind Weis - a former non-football playing ND student. Another awful season could change that and cause Father Jenkins to rethink his decision three years ago.

Frank Solich, Ohio (19-18):
The high point for Solich so far has been the MAC East and 9-5 season in 2006. He bookend that with two so so seasons. Solich hasn't had the impact in the MAC many expected, especially considering that league is currently down. He might not get that much better.

Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State (18-19):
Most famous for his rant after a solid win against Texas Tech last season, Gundy has put together back-to-back 7-6 seasons for OSU. He has had very solid and balanced offenses, but losing offensive coordinator Larry Fedora is a big hit. Expect Gundy to stay competitive, but he many never be able to topple the Big 12 South's big boys. Be aware, Boone T. Picken's deep pockets could get antsy at any time.

Dave Wannstedt, Pittsburgh (16-19):
Wanny has been one win from going bowling in each of his three seasons. He has upped the talent level significantly and many expect the 2008 season to be a dandy for Pitt. His defense finished 5th nationally a year ago, but coordinator Paul Rhodes is a loss. The high expectations make this season a big one for Wannstedt, who's a good example of a coach who is still hard to get a handle of after three seasons.

Dick Tomey, San Jose State (17-19):
Tomey did what many didn't expect - reach a bowl following the 2006 season. Tomey is unlikely to raise the profile of this program much more than he already has. However, the gray bearded Tomey has already done what he was hired to: improve the results and profile of a program that was close to shutting its doors before his arrival.

Steve Spurrier, South Carolina (21-16):
While Spurrier has made the SEC that much more interesting, he hasn't had the great success many expected. More surprisingly is that his USC offenses have been a shadow of what his Florida offenses were. He has a boat load of starters returning, making 2008 a big season for the Old Ball Coach. He's made the Gamecocks competitive in the SEC, but others in the coaching world have caught up to the OBC.

Walt Harris, Stanford (6-17, 2 years):
You could argue that he was unjustly fired from Pittsburgh following a BCS bowl birth. But he was a complete flop at Stanford and was fired after only his second season.

Greg Robinson, Syracuse (7-28):
Perhaps the worst remaining hire of this class, Robinson has done worse than even his biggest detractors could have imagined. In a time when the Big East was expanding with C-USA teams, its amazing that one of its all-time better programs has struggled so much. Robinson's seat is very hot. He hired Glen Mason's former offensive coordinator, Mitch Browning, and that move could enough to save his job.

Kyle Wittingham, Utah (24-14):
Urban Meyer's former defensive coordinator has maintained the program quite well. Utah is poised for a big season if QB Brian Johnson stays healthy. Many will be calling for his squad to upset Michigan. If he does, the rivalry game with BYU this season could be for a BCS bowl birth. Nonetheless, at this point Wittingham wouldn't be a real splashy hire for a BCS program.

Brent Guy, Utah State (6-29):
His hiring at Utah State didn't turn any heads. His tenure at Utah State has done just that, hasn't turned any heads. If Utah State is serious about being competitive in football they'll fire this Guy. But then again, they might not be.

Ty Willingham, Washington (11-25):
Ty has made only limited progress in cleaning up the mess left behind by Keith Gilbertson. This one of the all-time great programs may be in need of new blood. Willingham is on many hot seat lists, but he might have just a good enough season to keep his job. He may also have done a good enough job to give his replacement a good chance at success.

Bill Cubit, Western Michigan (20-16):
Cubit was a very quite hire, but has had a nice run in Kalamazoo. He'll likely be able to keep WMU competitive in the MAC, but might never have enough success to justify a big promotion. Expect a run at the MAC title this season out of Cubit's squad.


1 comments:

Anonymous said...

What Coach Miles actually said:

"I'm looking forward to coaching my damn STRONG football team".