Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Ripper Ramblings

Kansas: The statistics are startling. The Jayhaws have the following offensive statistical national rankings: Rushing 13, Passing (16), Total (7), Scoring (2). The defensive statistical rankings are similarly impressive: Rushing (8), Passing (7), Total (4), Scoring (2). The average game score this season has been 50-10. Kansas was 6-6 a year ago. They lost close games. Two were in overtime, two were by three points or less, and one by 10 points before being blown out by Missouri. Kansas beat the BCS's current number two school, USF in '06. Statistically the offense was solid last season: Rushing (19), Passing (60), Total (33), Scoring (29). The defense was a different story: Rushing (28), Passing (119), Total (94), Scoring (81). You read correctly. Kansas has managed to improve its pass defense from 119 nationally in 2006 to 7 in 2007. What are some possible solutions? Likely a staff overhaul. The same defensive coordinator, Bill Young, has been there since 2002. However, outside of Young the defensive staff has been reshuffled. Clint Bowen became the co-defensive coordinator this season while maintaining his duties as safeties coach. The other defensive assistants are new - Steve Tovar (LB coach) and Je'Ney Jackson (CB coach). The returning starters numbers are nothing out of the ordinary. The defense returned six starters including two in the backfield. CB Aqib Talib is a likely All-American. This year's defense has only one senior starter. It should also be noted that defensive success is not totally new at Kansas. In 2005 they finish number 11 nationally in total defense behind the third best rush defense. That year they were a mediocre 59th in pass defense. Another critical staff addition is Ed Warinner as offensive coordinator. In 2006 he was the running game coordinator at the Big Ten's best rushing program, Illinois. Expect Kansas to be unbeaten until they face Missouri in the most intense Boarder War since the Civil War. If they are impressive, a Big 12 title game win could get them to New Orleans.

Hawaii: Hawaii struggled on the mainland again in defeating 3-4 San Jose State 42-35 in overtime. At least one thing is clear about Hawaii and Colt Brennan - a golden opportunity was missed. If Brennan had turned out a season similar to '06 he would be sitting as the Heisman favorite right now. Moving on, Hawaii debuted as number 18 in the BCS standings. Let's take a closer look. First, a season ago Boise State started at number 15 before rising to 8 prior to playing in the Fiesta Bowl. Due to games against each other Hawaii is guaranteed to have seven schools currently ranked higher than them lose the remainder of the season. The ability to move up is there. However, Hawaii is ranked at 16 in both human polls but the computers have the Rainbow Warriors in a tie at 25th. While the computers could change drastically as the season moves on, if they do continue to rank Hawaii low it will make it easier for voters to slight Hawaii. Voters would likely have to rank Hawaii in their top ten to get them in the top 12 of the BCS. My best guess on what will happen: The time when voters will be deciding on whether they want to see Hawaii in a BCS bowl will be when they take on Boise State and Washington on the Rock. If they can win those games impressively they may be able to convince voters to keep them high. Also, Hawaii may be able to get in the backdoor way. If they finish in the top 16 and a BCS automatic qualifier is below them in the BCS rankings, Hawaii would be given an automatic bid. The best chance for that to happen would be to have an upset in the ACC title game.

Crabtree: I'm on the Michael Crabtree bandwagon. The stats are too much to ignore. Here they are. He's at 177.7 yds/game, 11.1 receptions/game, and 17 touchdowns. How does that compare nationally? He is 18 receptions, 360 yards, and 6 touchdowns better than the nation's number two in all those stats. Number 12 nationally in TD's has only 6. The reason to watch Crabtree this year is to see if he can break the all-time single season receiving records. He is on pace for 133 receptions which puts him 9 behind the record of 142 set in 1994 by Houston's Manny Hazard. His yardage pace is 2132 yards which would top the 2060 by Trevor Insley of Nevada in 1999. He's on pace for 29 TD's which would best Troy Edwards (La Tech) 27 in 1998. It should be remembered that the schedule gets much tougher for the Red Raiders. As far as Heisman for either him or Graham Harrell its all about bucking the "system" label. I think people are realizing that these guys are doing things that have never been done in Lubbock before and should be given some consideration. Although I think to break through they will need to do something else, play some good pass defense and not get bogged down against Oklahoma as in the past. If Texas Tech plays in the Big 12 title game with only one loss, these guys will get some consideration. Consider this, with such a wide open Heisman race expect for a more unique candidate to win, one that doesn't fit the basic mold. Due to that, I expect a better winner than some of the boring picks of recent years (Weinke, White, Smith). Perhaps a system QB or a freshman can be that unique pick.

Overtime. What does the 69-67 Boise State win over Nevada in four overtimes tell me? That overtime games need to be scored differently. I'm not saying change the fashion in which the games are decided. My suggestion is to award the overtime winning team one additional point over their regulation total. Sunday night's game final would have been 45-44 in favor of Boise State. The total score in that game (136) is the most since NCAA began keeping records in 1937. Not a real legit record as the vast majority of those games were played prior to overtime. Also, long overtime games can hurt the credibility of season stats.
Capital One Bowl: Both Tom Dienhart and Matt Hayes of the SportingNews are projecting a Capital One Bowl match up of Illinois versus Florida. Boy, wouldn't that be a sports writer's dream.

1 comments:

Vince said...

Loving the Crabtree as well...last week I put up an article about his freakish stats, and right on cue he fails to reach paydirt.

I am the anti-Midas...