We have a problem with the polls. This coming Saturday the number five team in all three major polls (AP, Coach's, and Harris) plays an unranked opponent. However, the number five team, Wisconsin, is a 2.5 point underdog to Illinois. If the voters were performing there duty this should never happen. If Wisconsin is on par with Illinois the polls should come close to reflecting that. The poll bias on display is Wisconsin being helped by a high preseason ranking and voters not wanting to make radical changes week to week. If Wisconsin started the year unranked they would likely still be their or sitting at the back end of the polls waiting for an impressive win. The fact is Wisconsin hasn't lost and due to that they haven't been dropped down and are benefiting from the recent rash of upsets. I think the underlying problem is that voters think that their polls lose credibility if they undergo significant changes from week to week. The human polls need to take advice from their computer counterparts. The computers have wild swings in the early weeks due to having, on a percentage basis, a ton of new data entered in during the early weeks. As the season moves on the computers have less volatility. The computer programmers claim that their polls are meant to be the most accurate at the end of the season. In reality, so should the human polls as we have had the greatest amount games to evaluated those being voted on. When Wisconsin gives up 31 points to The Citadel the human voters shouldn't be afraid to drop them 10 spots or even clear out of the top 25.
J Leman should get considerable Butkus consideration. The Butkus Award, given annually to the nation's top linebacker, has strong ties to the nation's elite programs. Perhaps being that linebacker is a position difficult to evaluate, schools with greater exposure and better teams have tended to win the award. Of the 15 schools who have had a Butkus Award (it has been given out 22 years and won by 21 different players) 10 schools have been in the top 12 of all-time winning percentage. Leman does have some precedent in his favor in that Illinois is one of the five schools outside of the top 12 in winning percentage to have a winner (Kevin Hardy-'95, Dana Howard-'94). Semifinalist for the award will be announced on October 18th. Currently Leman is 7th in the nation in tackles and 2nd amongst Butkus Award Watch List members. A year ago he finished 3rd nationally and 1st in the Big Ten in total tackles. In a key drive versus Penn State he has a tough pass breakup in the end zone and an athletic interception inside the five. The son of a preacher graduated in three years and is currently in graduate school. The charismatic Leman has become the face of the surging Illini, a rare feet for a linebacker.
The Big 12 North is deep. There are two surprising things about the Big 12 North this year. First, and what has been widely reported, is that the North has narrowed the gap between the south. Only two North versus South games have been played so far with the North winning both (KSU over Texas; CU over OU). The second surprising think is that the conference has five legitimate contenders at this point with Iowa State being the only one out. KSU and Colorado look tough after their impressive victories. Missouri and Nebraska came in as pre-season favorites and haven't done enough damage to make people thing otherwise (Nebraska is close, though). Perhaps the most impressive team so far has been Kansas. The Fighting Manginos have gained over 500 yards in every game this season (552.8 ypg, 3rd nationally) and have allowed only 24 points for the year (5.8 ppg, 1st nationally). Kansas travels to Manhatten and Nebraska visits Missouri this weekend. We should know a lot more about the Big 12 North after this weekend. The other interesting thing to keep an eye on - especially this off-season - will be how the North's resurgence impacts the conferences tv negotiations and the desire of the more low profile programs (many of them North schools) to equally distribute tv revenues.
Unlikely Conference Champs. At this point in the season you should NOT be called crazy if you are predicating the following conference champs: ACC-Boston College, Big 12-Missouri, Big 10-Illinois, Big East-USF, Pac 10-Arizona State, SEC-Kentucky.
Purdue has more than a QB on their side. Two elements to this year's Purdue team that they haven't had in the past may help propel them past the Buckeyes on Saturday. In recent years the Boilermaker offense has been bogged down versus some of the premier defenses. Play makers like the Dorian Bryant and tight end Dustin Keller may provide the spark needed to extend some drives. In past years Purdue has been done in versus Ohio State by special teams. This season may be a different story. Purdue boasts the 3rd nationally kickoff return team, 7th kickoff coverage team, and 23rd punt return team.
Where were you Reece? Too bad we didn't have Reece Davis along for the fun last Saturday. He gave a sticker helmet from a hotel in New York, but why he was out of studio wasn't mentioned. We missed you Reece.
Where were you Gerry? A week after watching Gerry DiNardo do maybe the best analyst job I've seen on the Sunday addition of Big Ten Tonight on the Big Ten Network, I was eagerly awaiting the next week's show. Unfortunately he wasn't on the air. Hopefully it was a one week absence. It seems as if the BTN is switching up their programing format in the early days to see what sticks.
Tuesday, October 2, 2007
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