Monday, August 27, 2007

Guru's Big East Picks


The 6th best conference in the nation is the Big East. Honestly I don't feel good about putting them this low, however due to the size of the conference it's tough to match them up against the other conferences in the nation. To be clear on things I think in terms of ratios the Big East is as good or better than just about any other conference. The Big East this season has 2 legit national title contenders, 2 very strong teams, 2 average teams who could be good, and 2 lower rung teams. However this translates to only 4 strong teams in the conference, which makes it tough to stack up against other conferences who have 6-9 legitimate bowl hopeful teams.

Last year the Big East did just about everything it could to prove itself against the other conferences. For a while there was 3 undefeated squads in the conference with Rutgers being one of the biggest surprises in the nation. Up until the bowls last season, there was no team with a real tough out of conference schedule. Louisville however knocked off Miami (FL) and their annual showdown with Kentucky. Once the bowl season came, the Big East really made their mark going 5-0.

In my opinion it's still going to take a while for this conference to get respect from others. When they lost Boston College, Virginia Tech, and Miami (arguably the 3 best teams in the conference) to the ACC many people saw this as a sign of weakness within the conference. Even now many people are not going to put a lot of stock into last season's success of Rutgers, West Virginia, and Louisville simply due to a "watered down" conference. Unfortunately I feel that a lot of people look at the Big East as a stepping stone between mid major and BCS conferences. This perception will slowly change with the more competition the conference faces in the future. However much like mid majors there isn't a whole lot of room for error. If West Virginia had lost to Georgia in the Sugar Bowl 2 years ago, it would have taken a lot to earn the respect of college and SEC fans in particular. Having seasons such as last year with high profile teams and a lot of out of conference success is what it will take to get the conference more respect.

With that being said, the Big East has a fair out of conference schedule this season. The signature game that could really earn the conference a lot of respect is when a very underrated South Florida squad travels to the plains of Auburn to take on a vulnerable big time SEC team. West Virginia will host Mississippi State and travel to Maryland. Louisville hosts Kentucky and Utah and travels to Raleigh to take on NC State. Rutgers will take on Maryland and Navy amongst others at home this season.

3 Big Questions in the Big East This Season:

1. Will the Big East get a team to the National Championship this season?

2. Is Rutgers for real? Can they match or surpass the success from last season?

3. What will the image of the conference be at season's end? There's going to be a lot of negativity surrounding the conference from other conferences, especially if they are in the running for a championship game birth. Will the Big East finally be able to put the negativity to rest?

West Virginia and Louisville can match up with the top teams in any conference and both have a great shot at making the championship game. The loss of Bobby Petrino is going to set back Louisville a little bit, but Steve Kragthorpe is a more than adequate replacement. West Virginia has as good of a 1-2 punch as any team in the country. In my opinion Rutgers is going to be here to stay. They truly are a sleeping giant in the college game that finally woke up last season. New Jersey is a state with a lot of talent that gets picked through by other programs. If Rutgers can continue their success from last season, there's a very good chance they'll be able to lock down these recruits. South Florida is another team that is very legit. Last season's victory at West Virginia is no fluke. One may argue that Matt Grothe is the best quarterback in the state of Florida right now. Much like Rutgers they come from a recruiting hot bed. They've also come on recently at a time when many of the in state powers are going through a rough stretch. It's tough to get a good read on what kind of teams Pittsburgh and Cincinnati will be this season. Cincinnati showed a lot of improvement last season, but lost their head coach to Michigan State. Brian Kelly was a very sought after head coach after last season's success at Central Michigan, but it may take some time for him to develop his team. Pittsburgh is a team with good talent, but they are very inconsistent. It's shocking that Syracuse is as bad as they are defensively with Greg Robinson as the head coach. He had a lot of success before coming to Syracuse but they're team was at the very bottom statistically on defense. I look for their struggles to continue until they find a new coach.

1. West Virginia 12-0 (7-0)

2. Louisville 10-2 (5-2)

3. Rutgers 10-2 (5-2)

4. S. Florida 9-3 (5-2)

5. Pittsburgh 7-5 (3-4)

6. Cincinnati 6-6 (2-5)

7. Connecticut 5-7 (1-6)

8. Syracuse 1-11 (0-7)

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

While, as a BE fan, I like the post, I have serious credibility issues with anyone that says Miami, VT, and BC were "arguably the 3 best teams" in the league. Miami and VT? Yes. BC? No way. No one ever made that claim while BC was in the BE because, frankly, they were middle of the road at best.

Statistics to back up the "middle of the road" claim:
Since 2000, BC is 2-3 vs. WVU; 1-4 vs. Pitt; and 2-3 vs. Syracuse (all losing records).

From 2000-2003, they finished 5th, 4th, 5th, and 5th. In 2004, they snagged a share of the Big East Championship along with 4 other teams.

Since Round-Robin play in the Big East started in 1993 until BC left in 2004, BC has only had a winning record 5 times in the conference (for perspective, WVU had 9 over the same time period).

Out of the 12 years BC was in Round-Robin Big East play, they finished 1(tie) once (2004) and 3rd twice (1993 and 1999).

So, no matter how many times ESPN and the ACC repeat it, BC was not a top Big East school and had never really been one.

Eric said...

I think you underestimate Cincinnati's potential. Their first season in Big East play was poor (2005) due to the fact that they only had 5 returning starters. Last year wasn't really a fluke and Brian Kelly, call me a crazy Chippewa fan if you wish, is one of the best coaches in the country.

I've seen him work his magic at Grand Valley State (won 2 D2 titles I believe) and he turned Central Michigan around in 3 seasons. The guy knows what he's doing and he's inheriting a team that won a bowl game last year. They'll wind up better than Pitt and they should probably be just as good as Rutgers or USF this year (who each lost to Cincy, BTW).

For what it's worth, I've got West Virginia playing for the national title, Louisville going 5-2 in conference play with Rutgers, USF, and Cincinnati each 4-3. I think Pitt misses out on a bowl game but UConn goes even with their 2-5 mark because of their OOC schedule (Maine, Duke, Temple, Akron).

Anonymous said...

How did Rutgers finish 7 and 2 in conference play? Do they get extra games in NJ?

Mark said...

Pittsburgh had Louisville, WVU and Rutgers all at home last year and lost all three. This year they go on the road for all three. It will be a tough year for Pitt.

But they are also a very talented and young and rebuilding team. They have a very bright future if they do not let this recent decline keep them down for good (like Syracuse fans seems to have accepted).

Similarly, Rutgers should have a great season but much of the depth they have is very young. Their best years are ahead of them.. but if they suffer a setback due to losing a few close games, maybe some key injuries... one can only hope they keep faith and see that bright future realized. At this time, only the loss of head coach Greg Schiano should be feared. And since he turned down Miami, maybe there is reason to believe he is there to stay.

john said...

boston college was never a big east power...to even intimate that they were among the three best teams in the big east is completely wrong...wvu was 18-6-1 against boston college over the last 25 years the teams played...note also that virginia tech finished fourth in the league the last three years they were in the big east...miami was the only true loss...