Thursday, July 26, 2007

Guru's Big Ten Picks


The delay in posting the rest of my conference predictions, was the time it took me to determine the rest of the conference rankings beyond the SEC. Coming in at number 2 is the Big Ten. Last year the conference hosted 3 national championship caliber teams and finished the year with 3 teams in the top 10 and 4 teams in the top 25. The Big 10 went 2-5 last bowl season with both wins coming against SEC opponents. It was not a good ending to the season for the Big Ten with Michigan and Ohio State both losing their BCS matchups by large margins.

This was the second off season in a row where a Big Ten coach passed away. Terry Hoeppner had IU poised to make a bowl bid this season, and was bringing life to a dormant football program. I've heard nothing but good things about Hoeppner both as a coach and as a person.

Also during this off season there were 2 new coaching changes with Tim Brewster taking over at Minnesota and Mark Dantonio becoming the new coach at Michigan State. Brewster is regarded as a recruiting machine, but is unproven as either a coordinator or head coach. Dantonio was a stingy defensive coordinator for the 2002 national champion Buckeyes and did a good job at Cincinnati, before taking over at a Michigan State team that's screaming for leadership and discipline.

Out of conference for the Big Ten this season is for the most part pretty tame. Michigan hosts Oregon at the Big House followed up by a visit from Notre Dame the next week. Penn State, Michigan State, and Purdue also play Notre Dame this season. Wisconsin will host Washington State in week 1 and Ohio State travels to Washington week 3. Beginning the year Illinois will have an early test against out of conference rival Missouri.


Three big questions to be answered this season in the Big Ten:

1. Can Lloyd Carr finally beat Jim Tressell, and get to the the national title game with Chad Henne and Mike Hart returning for their senior seasons?

2. What coaching turnover will we see at the end of the season? Ron Zook may be on a short leash, Joe Tiller and Joe Paterno are getting closer and closer after each year, Bill Lynch may just be a temporary replacement, Lloyd Carr could be out if he doesn't show results this season, Kirk Ferentz could jump to the pros.

3. What success will Mark Dantonio and Tim Brewster show in year one at Michigan State and Minnesota?

This season the Big Ten has 3 teams in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Penn State that all have legitimate potential to go undefeated. Ohio State should have a minor setback due to an inexperienced quarterback and a tough road schedule. Beyond these teams there are a lot of question marks in the rest of the field, but a lot of optimism. Iowa should rebound from their sub par year. Purdue could be a dark horse if the experience they return can improve on their shaky defense from last season. Illinois and Northwestern should continue to improve from last season. Michigan State and Minnesota could be a work in progress this season despite their coaching hires.


1. Wisconsin 11-1 (7-1)

1. Penn State 11-1 (7-1)

1. Michigan 11-1 (7-1)

4. Purdue 10-2 (6-2)

5. Iowa 8-4 (5-3)

6. Ohio State 8-4 (4-4)

7. Illinois 6-6 (2-6)

8. Northwestern 6-6 (2-6)

9. Minnesota 6-6 (2-6)

10. Michigan State 4-8 (2-6)

11. Indiana 3-9 (0-8)






8 comments:

Jim said...

Horrible, is all I can say.

Anonymous said...

Are you a complete jack...Your post shows a real lack of understanding of both previous and current performance as well as an understanding of the actual schedules each team faces.

Anonymous said...

IU isn't going to win 1 conference game and is going to lose 1 non conference game? LOL! Have you even looked at IU's schedule? Do you know anything about the team other than the well publicized death of Terry H.? This is one of the worst predictions I have read. Not just for IU, but for the entire conference. IU loses 1 impact player from last year's team in the defensive secondary who would not have started for half the teams in the Big 10. We will be much better than your prediction, even with the loss of our great coach.

Eric said...

I disagree with you about Indiana and Illinois. I don't think the Illini will beat Ball State. They'll win one conference game.

I also think you underestimate Northwestern. I've got NW winning 4 conference (Michigan State, Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota/Purdue) games and sweeping the OOC schedule.

Eric said...

About Indiana, I've got them beating Illinois and that's it.

Eric said...

Well, in the Big 10, that'll be all for Indiana.

Anonymous, you're an Indiana fan, right? You've seen their defense before, right?

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Brian Owens said...

eric...I realize it's against weak opponents (no weaker than last year really), but IU's defense leads the nation in quarterback sacks and is in the top 20 in run defense.

I'm not saying that will hold up through the entire season, but they are considerably better.

Illinois, Northwestern, and Minnesota are all looking worse than the Hoosiers right now (and did to me before the season started).

IU finishes 7-5 and goes bowling.